There were certainly votes lost in Michigan over Gaza, but even if every single Jill Stein vote was a protest vote (they weren’t), it wouldn’t have been enough for Harris to carry the state.

The tougher thing to parse is the reason why so many voters seemingly stayed home this cycle. I think there is a very reasonable argument that not enough people were excited about her message, even the base.

It’s a lot easier for door knockers, phone bankers, and everyday democrats to talk proudly about their candidate if they can rattle off a list of great things their candidate will do. It’s even easier if those great things hit people where they’re hurting the hardest or is the moral thing to do (healthcare for the uninsured, ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, etc.). It’s a lot tougher to get low propensity voters to show up on the harm reduction argument alone, especially if you brush past where they’re hurting or concede too much ground on your moral positions.

The biggest issue for most voters appears to have been inflation and the economy, and while democrats were technically correct to say the rate of inflation has come down and American economic indicators outperformed most other countries in this post-pandemic period, that’s all pretty meaningless to someone whose real wage growth didn’t keep up with inflation these past few years. The “opportunity economy” and targeted small business tax cuts is a much tougher sell to someone working two+ jobs to get by.

The other issue that dominated the media was immigration. Democrats forfeited their moral position when they offered the republican wishlist border bill earlier this year. The argument that republicans weren’t serious on the border because they didn’t support the bill fell flat, and instead democrats were (rightly) criticized for abandoning their framing of the issue as a choice between deportation and amnesty, and their previous claims the border wall was racist.

All of that to say, democrats failed to connect with their own base on the issues that make them the party’s best messengers. Add Gaza to the list of issues where Harris could have pivoted away from Biden, instead of running into the arms of the Cheneys to chase the mythical moderate republican voter.

Counting to five, too complicated for voters.

We all have our anecdotal experiences. If you’re a college student or graduate, going to school or working in an urban environment or coastal state, the data may not reflect your lived experience. But this has been the growing trend in national polls for some time now.

There’s also an increasing generational component to this, as millennials age out of the 18-29 demographic. If you’re a millennial, this shift may feel even more incomprehensible as millennials appear resistant to the typical conservative shift as they’ve aged.

Some very broken little boys out there.

Unfortunately there are many. And no matter what their interests are, whether it’s sports, video games, or going to the gym, there are right-wing groups who have set up shop to welcome them to their side. They provide them fraternity, an in-group to be part of, share their common interest, and pump a steady stream of misogyny and bigotry to normalize it.

And it worked.

Guys, stop talking to the media, you’re making our expensive strategists look bad. We really want to campaign with republicans and we don’t need your dissenting opinions out there to make it harder for us to do again next time.

I don’t disagree, but you’ll have to take that up with the Pew Research Center. Unfortunately this is kinda their area of expertise, haha

If Biden was so unelectable that he needed to be replaced immediately before the convention, and if 60%+ of the country thought things were on the wrong track, why would you run a Biden 2.0 campaign?

There was unique opportunity for Harris to thank Biden for his service and pivot. She should have had an answer for what she would have done differently than Biden, how she would have delivered more for Americans (regardless of if that was even possible).

Americans needed to hear Hope and Change, and she tried to sell them the status quo, but with Liz Cheney in her cabinet. Americans chose chaos, because the status quo ain’t working for them.

As a high propensity voter, and former young person, I too remember being offended by this insinuation. However, the data on the 18-29 voting block shows generally lower turnout and has remained largely unchanged within my lifetime.

Pretty sure this post is a Nintendo Switch ad.

Found some better data than just R v. D.

In 2023 Pew has 33% of Republicans identifying as conservative and 25% of Democrats identifying as moderate or conservative, so Americans are somewhere between 33% and 58% conservative. Conversely, Americans are somewhere between 23% and 37% liberal.

I think you’ve vastly underestimated the number of conservative Americans.

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Who is the Dick Cheney/Liz Cheney constituency though? Whose opinion will be swayed by the former VP of a deeply unpopular administration at its end? Or by a former Congresswoman with a infamous last name?

This is a nice-to-have for Democrats, but is it actually moving the needle with voters? Is it actually changing minds or increasing turnout? Harris and her advisors certainly think so, she’s out there campaigning with Cheney actively, but where is the movement in the numbers, cause I’m not seeing it.

Energize the fucking progressives.

Yes. She could be capitalizing on popular progressive ideas, like healthcare or lowering grocery prices. These ideas have traction with groups beyond just leftists. She could have run an Obama style campaign, rather than be Biden 2.0. Instead we get Cheneys and “opportunity economy” for small business owners.

There are far more progressives than there are conservatives.

Doubt. Gallup has 48% of Americans identifying has Republican or Republican leaning. Unless you’re telling me that self identifying Republicans are not conservative, but are in fact made up of mostly “moderates” or secret progressives, I don’t know how else you came to this conclusion.

There might even be more progressives than there are moderates.

Also doubt. Where’s the data on this?

What’s the deal with the smallest of marginalized groups? They weren’t important before, why do I have to care about them now? /s

$14.88

That’s a comfortable lead no matter how you spin it.

My brother in anti-Trumpism, the only spin here is yours in saying her lead is comfortable.

Your original OpEd focused on national polling, so that’s what I responded to. But yes, ignore the national polling, focus on the swing states, the electoral college is what counts.

From the same WaPo article as your picture is this swing state focused chart:

It shows the 2020 polling error, which was largely in Trump’s favor in swing states (other than GA). If the same polling error still exists now in 2024, all that comfort disappears. The polling error was even greater in Trump’s favor in 2016, however was in Obama’s favor in 2012.

The point not being that Trump will outperform the polls this time, but that margins of error matter, and the reality could swing either way. With polling in so many states being within the margins, we’re likely seeing the closest election of our lifetimes.

And all this isn’t meant to be doom and gloom, but I ain’t going into this election with Clinton levels of comfort, again. You’re absolutely right on the game plan though. If you live in any of these states, your vote this time will likely be more consequential than it ever will be.

Just two days out he even had her probability of winning at just 64.2%, still better odds than what we’re seeing for Harris right now. And you’re right, he was the only reputable poll aggregator who was making downward adjustments of that magnitude, that late in the race.

Harris has a comfortable lead in the electoral college right now.

As much as I want to buy into this optimism, I’m having trouble equating Harris’s marginal lead in the average national polls with a comfortable electoral college lead.

When battleground state polling is within the margin for error for states she needs to win and the no toss-ups map looks like this, you really need to have an abundance of faith in professional poll aggregators’ judgement and weightings to feel comfortable.

From the data table at the bottom of this Nate Silver article (below the sports betting), he suggests Harris needs to win the popular vote by a +2 to +3 margin in order to have a greater than 50% probability of winning the electoral college. The latest polling from the Silver Bulletin has her at +2.9, just enough to give her “a slight advantage, but with emphasis on slight.”

Nothing about this makes me feel comfortable.

So they did publish the name of a Neo-Nazi identified on the boat with the Nazi flags, who’s the founder of a Neo-Nazi group.

But going as far as to say these known Neo-Nazis are not antifa would be too far.

Cause Neo-Nazis are so often also antifascist…

Seems the Mike Pillows dog whistle pricing reached its intended audience too.