cross-posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/20071879
OK, so that is in the running for clickbait hed of the year, but it’s actually apt for the column.
It may seem paradoxical to write this in an opinion piece. But it needs saying: arguments alone have no meaningful effect on people’s beliefs. And the implicit societal acceptance that they do is getting in the way of other, more effective forms of political thinking and doing.
I’m a researcher who studies the intersection of psychology and politics, and my work has increasingly led me to believe that our culture’s understanding of how political persuasion works is wrong. In the age of Donald Trump, Elon Musk and the rise of the far right, commentators have endlessly opined on the problems of fake news, polarisation and more. But they’ve mostly been looking in the wrong places – and have focused too much on words.
Take “debates”. They’re a central part of most election campaigns around the world, seen as so influential that they’re often governed by strict rules around media coverage and balance. Yet evidence suggests that watching debates has no impact on opinions whatsoever. In 2019 researchers analysed 56 TV debates in 22 elections in the US, Canada, New Zealand and Europe from 1952 to 2016. The study tracked nearly 100,000 respondents to see whether debates helped undecided or decided voters to make up or change their minds. They found no evidence that they did. In 2012, a reporter ran another analysis about whether debates influenced election outcomes. As he put it: “The effects of debates on eventual votes are likely mild, and, in most cases, effectively nil.”
I see the point the author is trying to make, but they conveniently left out a major counter example: the last Biden/Trump debate was such a disaster that Biden had to drop out of the race.
And supposedly Kennedy beat Nixon because he was a sweaty mess in their debate
I’ve read this kind of thing before and I believe it. People mostly change to conform to their in-group.
The other thing that changes people’s minds is trauma. Massive, life altering, trauma.
Like if some maga hat gets the absolute shit kicked out of them by the police they worship, like “will never walk again and is blind in one eye”, that might be enough to overload the brain and throw out the 'cops are good, actually ’ belief. Might be.
And I think it has to happen to them, not just someone close. There’s news stories about like people’s husband being deported but they still support trump. I think conservatives particularly are bad at empathy, so they won’t get it until something happens to them
Their take: they couldn’t convince Trump voters, so trying is pointless: maybe we shouldn’t even have a debate.
My take: Bad debaters. They’ve been getting worse over time. What’s the best move for a bad debater? Don’t debate.
It’s easy to look at the data and think that people can’t be convinced. Yet, its also easy to look at the Trump debates and see they weren’t really trying to convince anyone of much.
You can’t convince people if you don’t really have a message to convince them of aside from “I’m not Trump” and “Trump is bad.” They already believed that: Both candidates were bad, and both candidates are bad at delivering the promises. After three elections with Trump, it’s really like a broken record at this point.
Yes, it will!
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Which progressives are you talking about? Socialists are very aware of the problems of ordinary working people, who I think would be those you characterize as “people in the middle.” And I don’t know who is interested in only helping minorities, except for progressive organizations with a mandate to help particular minority groups. How and where do you see that happening?
Something tells me “progressives only care about minorities” isnt coming from someone with any actual beliefs
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I’m one of those who don’t vote for any political party
If you do not vote, you are participating in the agenda of the authoritarians who want to take the right to vote away from everyone (e.g. Donald Trump saying “you won’t have to vote anymore”). “Voting doesn’t matter” is their propaganda. If you repeat his message, you have been fooled by the propaganda and are now helping to spread it.
DO NOT BUY THIS CRAP.
If you encourage others not to vote, you are complicit with the authoritarians.
I’m not going to tell you who to vote for, but fucking VOTE. People fought wars over that, demanded changes in law for that, marched on Washington for that, got assassinated for speaking about that. Anyone who tells you it doesn’t matter is a fool, ignorant of the lessons of history.
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I’m not participating in any agenda
If my agenda is for you to not participate in the vote, then by abstaining you end up participating in my agenda whether you want to or not. If I can disappoint you to the point of not bothering the next time, then that’s 1 less person affecting the outcome of the vote, making it incrementally easier to forecast and manipulate the results.
I’m basically anti-political now, it’s [conservatives’ and progressives’] world, not mine.
Others have said it better than I, but I worry this just plays into the hands of authoritarians who rely on apathy such as this to seize more power. I implore you to find your own terms on which you can engage with politics, but do (re) engage with them.
Just because some of us stop paying attention to “politics” doesn’t mean politicians lose any power - it generally goes the other way.
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For what it’s worth, I put you in the “enlightened centrist” box. Someone who is heavily influenced by the far right and genuinely doesn’t realize it. You may not be MAGA, but you are most definitely being manipulated into doing their work. Your own words admit as much to us all, even if you haven’t realized it.
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You sure do a lot of complaining for someone who doesn’t participate.
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You’ve presented an opinion as fact and don’t have anything to back it up. The issue you’re having here is completely self inflicted.
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I’m not your buddy, pal.
I hope you mean that you vote for third party candidates, rather than not voting. Voting does matter - you’re sending a message by who you do or don’t vote for. Not voting sends the message that you aren’t engaged with politics and therefore your opinions don’t matter. Voting for a third party sends the message that you aren’t happy with the current status quo.
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If there really was such a political party or movement, then they would have offered me something.
No, they wouldn’t, because you’ve shown them through voter apathy that they can safely ignore you. Doing things you want politically won’t benefit them and ignoring you won’t harm them. If you aren’t going to engage with them, why would they engage with you?
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Well you could try. It might be enlightening for people like me who don’t know where you’re coming from or who your comments refer to. There are lots of different kinds of “progressives” so when you talk about them using this very general word I really don’t know who you have in mind.
They can’t explain because it’s a BS take. Different walks of life for two people have no bearing on the general population, progressives, or how they feel about each other. Perhaps there are some progressives that meet the initial claim, but that claim was directed at progressives and moderates in general.
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